Osun: Victory for the Opposition, Not Yet Uhuru
The outcome of the Osun State governorship election deserves more than the immediate excitement of an opposition victory. Yes, the ruling APC lost and that alone is worth celebrating: it demonstrates that an incumbent political establishment can still be defeated at the ballot box. But the opposition would be unwise to read too much into it.
It is worth asking whether Osun turned out the way it did for reasons that go beyond the governorship race itself. There is no evidence to establish that President Bola Tinubu or the APC deliberately sacrificed its candidate as part of a longer strategy aimed at 2027. Such a claim would require proof. But as a political hypothesis, it points to something worth considering: electoral victories can sometimes create the very complacency that later becomes dangerous.
Think about the psychology. The opposition wins Osun. Its supporters are emboldened. Its politicians become more confident. Nigerians who have long doubted whether the electoral system can deliver genuine change may begin to believe that the system is finally correcting itself.
And then comes 2027. That is where the real danger lies.
An opposition victory in Osun does not guarantee that the 2027 presidential election will be free, fair and transparent. One state election, however significant, cannot provide such assurance. The stakes, interests and political calculations at that level are on an entirely different scale. The opposition must therefore resist the temptation to mistake victory for security.
If anything, Osun should sharpen the opposition’s vigilance, not dull it. It should study how the election was actually conducted: the roles played by INEC, security agencies, political parties and observers; what worked, what failed and what could have gone wrong. Every lesson matters because 2027 will test not just popularity but preparedness.
An election is not won simply because voters prefer a candidate. It is won when that preference is translated into votes that are properly cast, recorded, protected and ultimately declared. The greatest mistake the opposition could make now is to conclude that because the APC lost Osun, 2027 is therefore guaranteed to be free and fair. That would be political naivety.
The APC must also read the message from Osun. A defeat in a strategically important state should prompt serious reflection. Why did it lose? Where did it lose support? Is the electorate sending a broader message about governance, economic hardship and political confidence? The answers may matter far beyond Osun.
But the opposition has an even bigger lesson to learn: never allow an electoral victory to lower your guard. Nigeria’s political history is littered with examples of parties celebrating victories only to discover that the terrain had changed beneath their feet. The 2027 election will involve enormous political stakes. Those seeking change cannot afford to approach it as though a fair contest has already been guaranteed.
Confidence is useful when it fuels organisation and mobilisation. It becomes dangerous when it produces complacency. The opposition should therefore celebrate the Osun victory but study it even more carefully.
It must not assume that because the ruling party lost Osun it will necessarily lose wherever it is challenged in 2027. Neither should it assume that the machinery of power has suddenly become powerless. Democracy survives not because politicians are always trustworthy but because citizens remain vigilant.
Osun may indeed be a reassuring sign that the electorate can still assert its will. That is genuinely worth celebrating. But it could become a dangerous political sedative if the opposition mistakes it for a guarantee of what lies ahead.
The crucial question is not simply: ‘Why did the APC lose Osun?’ It should be: ‘What should the opposition learn from Osun before 2027?’
The answer is simple: organise better, mobilise harder, watch every process, protect every vote and never assume that yesterday’s victory guarantees tomorrow’s outcome.
Celebrate Osun. Study Osun. But do not sleep because of Osun.
Not yet Uhuru.
After all, the leopard never changes its spots.
Okiwelu Azed P. writes from Asaba.
